What A Simple Question Reveals About The Most Dangerous Cognitive Bias

You’d think asking “How confident are you that you’re right?” is harmless—turns out it nails the overconfidence bias. This video digs into why we all overestimate our smarts, debunks the classic Dunning-Kruger graph, and shows how mental shortcuts trick us into believing we know more than we do.

Along the way you’ll meet rogue trader Nick Leeson and learn about one of England’s oldest banks crumbling under unchecked certainty. The takeaway? Thoughtful feedback, regular calibration games and simple reflection exercises are your best weapons against dangerous overconfidence.

Watch on YouTube