What A Simple Question Reveals About The Most Dangerous Cognitive Bias

Veritasium dives into why we’re all way more certain of our own beliefs than we should be, unpacking the true shape of the Dunning-Kruger curve and the mental shortcuts that trick us into overconfidence. Through real-world case studies—from Nick Leeson’s rogue trading to the collapse of Barings Bank—Derek Muller and guests show how a lack of feedback and poor calibration can lead to colossal mistakes.

Beyond diagnosing the problem, the video also offers solutions: the critical role of honest feedback loops, how to spot when you’re veering into overconfidence territory, and ways to build better decision-making habits. Plus, there’s a cheeky invite to back a tabletop game that helps you practice humility—and even a shout-out to a magnetic molecular modeling kit, Snatoms.

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