Why People Are So Confident When They’re Wrong

In this video, Derek Muller dives into why we so often think we know more than we do. He breaks down the most dangerous cognitive biases, unveils the real Dunning-Kruger curve, and shows how our brain’s mental shortcuts pump up our confidence. Along the way, he shares wild case studies—like Nick Leeson’s rogue trading fiasco and the collapse of one of England’s oldest banks—to prove that inflated certainty can have epic fails.

But it’s not all doom and gloom: overconfidence can fuel ambition, and with the right feedback loops and simple hacks, you can keep your ego in check. Plus, there’s a new tabletop game on Kickstarter designed to help you calibrate your confidence—so you can still be bold without blundering.

Watch on YouTube