Why we’re so sure we’re right (even when we’re not): our brains use quick shortcuts that make us overestimate what we know—think of the classic Dunning-Kruger curve where the least skilled are often the most confident. Overconfidence isn’t all bad (it can boost motivation and creativity), but without honest feedback it can lead to big mistakes—just ask Nick Leeson or the folks who watched one of England’s oldest banks crumble.
The good news? By recognizing these biases, seeking out real-world checks (like fact-checking friends or fresh data) and treating confidence as a hypothesis to test, we can keep our egos in check and make smarter calls.
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