In this video, Derek Muller and Gabe Strong dive into why we’re so often overconfident—exploring the real Dunning-Kruger curve, cognitive shortcuts that trick us into believing we know more than we do, and surprising cases like Nick Leeson’s rogue trading and the collapse of one of England’s oldest banks. They show how a little overconfidence can be useful but also how it becomes dangerous without honest feedback.
Along the way you’ll get tips on recalibrating your certainty—playing a new tabletop game designed to bust your blind spots, seeking tough feedback, and actively looking for evidence that proves you wrong. Backed by insights from Professors Moore and Fischhoff, this is your crash course in keeping your ego in check and getting closer to the truth.
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