Why People Are So Confident When They're Wrong

Ever caught yourself absolutely sure about something only to be way off? That’s the magic (or curse) of overconfidence: our brains love shortcuts, so we warp evidence to fit our gut feelings. From the classic Dunning-Kruger effect—where the least skilled think they’re experts—to high-stakes blunders like Nick Leeson’s rogue trading or an old English bank’s collapse, thinking you just “know” can backfire spectacularly.

But it’s not all doom and gloom—overconfidence can fuel creativity, risk-taking and quick decisions. The trick is feedback. By testing our beliefs, playing games designed to bust our bias, and seeking reality checks, we can dial down the swagger and make smarter calls.

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