AI is the biggest bubble in human history…
and that is the BEST news you will read in 2025.
The Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolution, especially since 2022 with models like ChatGPT, is frequently compared to major technological disruptions throughout history. It is widely seen as a General Purpose Technology (GPT), similar to electricity, the internal combustion engine, and mechanization. These technologies do not just change one sector; they restructure entire economies and societies. The crucial difference, however, is the speed of adoption: mechanization took generations, electricity took 40 to 50 years to become ubiquitous, but ChatGPT reached 100 million users in just two months.
This insane speed and astronomical valuations raise the debate: is this the next dot-com bubble (2000)? The answer is that the AI bubble, if it bursts, will be the foundation for the greatest explosion of wealth in the coming decades, because the money already spent has turned into irreversible infrastructure.
The Historical Lesson: Laughing at Those Who Sold Early
If history is our guide, by 2035, we will probably laugh at those who sold Nvidia in 2024 just as we laugh at those who sold Amazon in 2001.
AI is a hybrid: it has the insane speed of adoption and corporate FOMO of the internet, but it involves the massive physical infrastructure investment seen in electricity and railroads.
| Technological Revolution | Time to Mass Adoption | Speculative Bubble? | What survived the crash? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mechanization | ~50–80 years | Yes: Railway Mania (1840s) | Railroads survived and changed the world |
| Electricity | ~40–50 years | Small local bubbles | Electrical grids and infrastructure stayed and powered the 20th century |
| Internet (dot-com) | Exploded in just 5–6 years | GIGANTIC (78% crash, $5 trillion evaporated) | 90% of companies failed, but infrastructure (fiber optics, data centers) remained and generated Google, Amazon |
| AI Revolution | Less than 5 years | Current debate 2025 | $400–$500 billion/year in data centers, GPUs, energy does not disappear |
The Irreversible Investment Tsunami: Fear, Opportunity, and the Paradox
AI is building infrastructure even more foundational than the internet. Global spending on AI is expected to reach $1.5 trillion in 2025. Big Tech companies plan to spend jointly over $400 billion to $500 billion in 2025 alone on CapEx (data centers, chips, infrastructure). This massive investment is in real physical infrastructure that does not evaporate when stock prices fall.
What drives this race? A powerful mix of opportunity and fear:
- Market Opportunity: 64% of CEOs want to invest in AI regardless of the economic scenario.
- Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO): 97% of leaders plan to incorporate AI, although about 74% admit having little knowledge of the technology. Investment becomes a survival strategy.
The irreversibility is not just hardware; it is also Human Capital, as millions of professionals are being trained to work with AI frameworks.
The Productivity Paradox
Despite the colossal investment, the total impact of AI on aggregate productivity is still limited (2023-2025)—this is the Productivity Paradox. Historically, the full impact of a GPT like electricity was felt only 20 years later, after companies learned to reorganize their work processes. The productivity explosion is expected in the 2030s and beyond.
Phases of the AI Revolution: From Walker to Architect
AI is essentially a tool for productivity amplification that transforms how we think and create. The locomotion analogy illustrates this journey, shifting the professional's role from executor to architect:
| Phase | Analogy | State and Productivity | Required Human Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phase 0 | 🚶 The Walk (Pre-AI) | Low Productivity, limited by human cognitive brute force. | Individual energy and time. |
| Phase 1 | 🚲 The Bicycle (Current AI) | Moderately Increased Productivity. AI is the copilot that reduces friction in tedious tasks. | The user still needs to "pedal" (provide prompts, review, refine). |
| Phase 2 | 🛵 The Motorcycle/Scooter (The Next Leap) | Significantly Increased Productivity. AI achieves semi-supervised autonomy (the engine does the effort). | The human defines the final destination and makes punctual interventions. |
| Phase 3 | 🚗 The Car (Process Automation) | Radically Increased Productivity. AI manages and optimizes complex processes with total automation. | The human moves from executor to system architect and defines strategy. |
| Phase 4 | 🚀 The Jet/Rocket (Cognitive Singularity) | Potentially Unlimited Productivity. AI solves complex problems and creates new solutions autonomously. | The human focus shifts entirely to existential, ethical questions, and the definition of purpose. |
Once humanity gains the speed of the Cognitive Bicycle, it will never go back to walking. The main shift is from "walker and runner" (executor) to "cyclist and pilot" (director and architect).
The "Blue Oceans" the AI Hype is Leaving Behind
While the trillion-dollar race attracts almost all capital and attention, entire markets are turning into "blue oceans"—unexplored spaces where competition is irrelevant.
The golden opportunity for entrepreneurs is to avoid competing with Big Tech in building LLMs, focusing instead on "Pick and Shovels": developing niche vertical solutions or the auxiliary infrastructure.
- The NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens) market is showing a "renaissance" in 2025, focused on utility.
- NFT weekly trading volume reached $130 million in early 2025.
- Projects like Pudgy Penguins are expanding into physical products, seeking business sustainability.
- Other areas like renewable energy and defense are also blue oceans.
Conclusion: Are You Pets.com or the Fiber Optic?
We are in the AI Gold Rush. Even if there is a sharp crash (as volatility is predicted by many analysts for 2026-2028), those positioned in physical infrastructure (energy, chips, data centers) and mature applications will dominate the next decades. The AI infrastructure is irreversible.
The dot-com bubble was the best investment in history for those who bought the crash.
The $20 trillion question is "Is AI a bubble or a revolution?".
It is: Are you buying Pets.com of 2025 or the fiber optic and data centers that will power the world for 50 years?
Answer with ONE word only:
BUBBLE or REVOLUTION?
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