TL;DR

This video kicks off with a deceptively simple question that lays bare our tendency to be way more confident than we should. Along the way, Derek Muller unpacks the real Dunning-Kruger curve (spoiler: it’s not what you’ve seen everywhere), shows how our brains take lazy shortcuts that inflate our certainty, and even admits why a sprinkle of overconfidence can sometimes fuel success.

Through wild case studies—from rogue trader Nick Leeson to the spectacular collapse of one of England’s oldest banks—you’ll see how missing feedback loops can wreck you. In the end, you’ll walk away with practical hacks to keep that overconfidence monster on a leash.

Watch on YouTube