What A Simple Question Reveals About The Most Dangerous Cognitive Bias

In this Veritasium episode Derek Muller digs into the problem of overconfidence, showing how a single question—“How confident are you that you’re right?”—unmasks the gap between perceived and actual knowledge. Along the way you’ll see why the classic Dunning-Kruger curve is misleading, how our brains use mental shortcuts, and even why a bit of overconfidence can sometimes be a good thing.

Real-world stories—like Nick Leeson’s Barings Bank meltdown—underscore how dangerous unchecked confidence can be. The video wraps up with practical tips on seeking better feedback, calibrating your certainty, and ultimately learning how to correct for overconfidence in everyday decisions.

Watch on YouTube