Why People Are So Confident When They’re Wrong
People often fall prey to overconfidence—the mismatch between how much we think we know and what we actually do know. This video dives into the real Dunning-Kruger effect (spoiler: it’s more nuanced than the viral graph), shows how our brains take shortcut “evidence” as gospel, and even challenges you to rate your own certainty. Along the way you’ll see some wild case studies, like Nick Leeson’s rogue trading and the collapse of one of England’s oldest banks, to illustrate just how dangerous unchecked confidence can be.
But it’s not all doom and gloom. A little healthy self-assurance can fuel creativity and risk-taking, and with the right feedback loops (or a fun tabletop game designed to poke holes in your certainty), you can learn to calibrate your confidence and actually get better at knowing when you’re wrong.
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