Why People Are So Confident When They’re Wrong

Overconfidence is one of the most dangerous cognitive biases: we tend to overestimate our knowledge and abilities, often because our brains take mental shortcuts. In this video, Derek Muller explores the Dunning–Kruger effect, shows how a lack of feedback fueled Nick Leeson’s rogue trading and the collapse of one of England’s oldest banks, and explains why a little overconfidence can actually be good for our motivation.

To keep ourselves in check, we need clear feedback loops and mental “reality checks.” The video even launches a tabletop game designed to help people spot their own blind spots, plus practical tips on how to question your assumptions and seek out honest critiques so you’re less likely to be confidently wrong.

Watch on YouTube