What A Simple Question Reveals About The Most Dangerous Cognitive Bias

Overconfidence isn’t just a quirky personality trait—it’s a cognitive trap that makes us wildly overestimate our own smarts, sometimes with disastrous results. In this video, Derek Muller walks you through the real Dunning-Kruger effect (hint: it’s not a neat U-curve), shows how your brain’s shortcuts amp up your certitude, and even highlights wild case studies like Nick Leeson’s rogue trading and a centuries-old bank collapse.

But it’s not all doom and gloom. Overconfidence can spark ambition, and with the right feedback loops—plus a nifty tabletop game the team’s launching—you can keep your ego in check. Think of it as mental hygiene: ask simple questions, seek honest feedback, and you’ll dodge the pitfalls of thinking you know more than you actually do.

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