Why People Are So Confident When They’re Wrong

Derek Muller unpacks overconfidence as one of the most dangerous cognitive biases, exploring how our brains use shortcuts that trick us into thinking we know more than we do. He maps out the real Dunning-Kruger curve, runs experiments to show how reliably bad we are at judging our own smarts, and even digs into wild case studies—like Nick Leeson’s rogue trading spree and the collapse of a centuries-old bank—to reveal how unchecked certainty can lead to disaster.

But it’s not all bad news: overconfidence can boost productivity when used wisely, and with good feedback loops you can keep that arrogance in check. Muller wraps up with practical tips (plus a shout-out to a tabletop game and molecular-modeling kit for hands-on practice) to help you dial down your misplaced certitude and get better at knowing what you actually know.

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